Making predictions about Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign is both a difficult and risky proposition these days. For, not only has the real estate mogul gained notoriety for his xenophobic, hate-filled campaign, he has also acquired a reputation in town for his mind-boggling ability to defy Newton’s law of gravity. Just when you think the goose of his presidential quest is ultimately cooked by his latest eye-popping politically-incorrect utterance, Trump suddenly stuns the watching world by gaining more points in the polls. To list Trump’s series of egregious political missteps would be like trying to count the stars in the sky. These are errors that would have long ago sent many a career politician to his political grave. But not Trump.

According to a new poll of Republican candidates by Reuters, Trump is ahead of his opponents with 31% of primary voters’ support, followed by Ben Carson who garners 15%, just half of Trump’s lead. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are tied at 8% while former Florida governor Jeb Bush receives 7%. However, the organization also notes that Trump’s lead has shrunk by twelve percentage points from his previous polling number of 43% conducted several weeks before, a decline that may not be unconnected with the barrage of criticisms that he has received following his reckless and insensate mockery of a New York Times reporter’s disability during a campaign speech recently. As you’ll see in the above video, that was truly, truly  a new low for Trump.

So is Trump’s loss of a whopping 12% evidence that he’s now starting to hemorrhage to the point where we can all safely say he’s facing the exit door? Nah!  It must be with an abundance of caution that we pronounce the decline of Trump’s White House bid because of his own remarks and actions and the evidence of just one scientifically conducted poll. Anyone who hopes to build a career on predicting the political misfortunes of Trump had better be sensible by looking for a new line of work. Dana Milbank of the Washington Post has vowed on October 2, 2015 that he’ll eat a whole page of newsprint containing his column if Trump lands his party’s nomination. Well, it’s worth the while to wait and see.